When guessing, consider a range of plausible alternatives to increase accuracy
Summary
- When guessing, consider a range of plausible alternatives to increase accuracy
Details
- The more we know about a topic, the tighter the range of plausible alternatives we might have, the less we know the wider the range
References
Quotes
We can also express how confident we are by thinking about the number of plausible alternatives and declaring that range. For example, if I am stating my belief about what age Elvis died, I might say, “Somewhere between age forty and forty-seven.” I know he died in his forties and I remember that it was his earlier forties, so for me this is the range of plausible alternatives. The more we know about a topic, the better the quality of information we have, the tighter the range of plausible alternatives. (When it comes to predictions, the plausible range of outcomes would also be tighter when there is less luck involved.) The less we know about a topic or the more luck involved, the wider our range.