Use scenario planning to plan for future possibilities
Summary
- Scenario planning means trying to think of all the possible options, then assign a probability for each one
Details
- this allows us to make a reasonable contingency plan for the more likely situations
References
Quotes
Figure out the possibilities, then take a stab at the probabilities. To start, we imagine the range of potential futures. This is also known as scenario planning. Nate Silver, who compiles and interprets data from the perspective of getting the best strategic use of it, frequently takes a scenario-planning approach. Instead of using data to make a particular conclusion, he sometimes takes the approach of discussing all the scenarios the data could support. In early February 2017, he described the merits of scenario planning: “When faced with highly uncertain conditions, military units and major corporations sometimes use an exercise called scenario planning. The idea is to consider a broad range of possibilities for how the future might unfold to help guide long-term planning and preparation.”