The conjunction fallacy
Summary
- You are more likely to be a doctor than a doctor and an asian.
Details
- A subset must be smaller than the entire set.
- If an additional condition has to be met, no matter how likely it seems, it is less likely not more likely.
- Also known as the linda problem:
- Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.
- Which is more probable?
- Linda is a bank teller.
- Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
- Many chose 2, but 1 is more probably
- Which is more probable?