Survivorship Bias
Summary
- Since success if more visible than failure, we overestimate our chances of success because Bill Gates, Tom Hanks, etc succeeded. But really we dont see the huge numbers of failures
Details
- We ony meet the survivors and thus think the chances of surviving are very high.
- Reality is that to be one of the 0.1% of any field is almost impossible.
- If we are among the survivors, we attribute success to hard work on our part instead of chance or coincidence. In reality, there are millions of hardworking and smart people who do not become successful through no fault of their own.