Our forecast of the future just needs to be good enough for us to prepare - we dont need very detailed forecasts
Summary
- Our forecast of the future just needs to be good enough for us to prepare - we dont need very detailed forecasts.
Details
- For example, we know there will be mistakes, negative events, booms and busts. We dont need to know the exact time they will appear, just be prepared.
- If we spend time and energy trying to forecast precisely, we may not be able to see the big picture values
References
Quotes
I’m confident in other people’s overconfidence, so I know there will be mistakes and accidents and booms and busts along the way.
I> t’s not detailed, but it’s good enough.
When you keep forecasting that simple, you free up time and bandwidth for other activities. I like studying the investing behaviors that never change, and I’d never have the time to do that if I spent my day predicting what the economy will do next quarter. The same is true in virtually every field. The more precise you try to be, the less time you have to focus on big-picture rules that are probably more important. It’s less about admitting that we can’t forecast, and more about acknowledging that if your forecast is merely good enough, you can invest your time and resources more efficiently elsewhere.
Related
- Plant seeds for the future
- Best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour
- Decision tool - What would my future self like
- The only thing we know about the future is that it is going to be different. - Peter Drucker
- Ask before you act - will this make my future easier or harder?
- The forecast illusion
- Planning fallacy
- Upfront planning or start and adjust as you go
- Common Sense Planning
- Extensive planning only works for achievements that can be described in advance